The changing nature of groundwater in the global water cycle.

In recent decades, climate change and other anthropogenic activities have substantially affected groundwater systems worldwide. These impacts include changes in groundwater recharge, discharge, flow, storage, and distribution. Climate-induced shifts are evident in altered recharge rates, greater groundwater contribution to streamflow in glacierized catchments, and enhanced groundwater flow in permafrost areas. Direct anthropogenic changes include groundwater withdrawal and injection, regional flow regime modification, water table and storage alterations, and redistribution of embedded groundwater in foods globally. Notably, groundwater extraction contributes to sea level rise, increasing the risk of groundwater inundation in coastal areas. The role of groundwater in the global water cycle is becoming more dynamic and complex. Quantifying these changes is essential to ensure sustainable supply of fresh groundwater resources for people and ecosystems.

Rapid groundwater decline and some cases of recovery in aquifers globally.

Groundwater resources are vital to ecosystems and livelihoods. Excessive groundwater withdrawals can cause groundwater levels to decline1-10, resulting in seawater intrusion11, land subsidence12,13, streamflow depletion14-16 and wells running dry17. However, the global pace and prevalence of local groundwater declines are poorly constrained, because in situ groundwater levels have not been synthesized at the global scale. Here we analyse in situ groundwater-level trends for 170,000 monitoring wells and 1,693 aquifer systems in countries that encompass approximately 75% of global groundwater withdrawals18. We show that rapid groundwater-level declines (>0.5 m year-1) are widespread in the twenty-first century, especially in dry regions with extensive croplands. Critically, we also show that groundwater-level declines have accelerated over the past four decades in 30% of the world's regional aquifers. This widespread acceleration in groundwater-level deepening highlights an urgent need for more effective measures to address groundwater depletion. Our analysis also reveals specific cases in which depletion trends have reversed following policy changes, managed aquifer recharge and surface-water diversions, demonstrating the potential for depleted aquifer systems to recover.

Widespread aquifer depressurization after a century of intensive groundwater use in USA.

Water supplies for household use and irrigated agriculture rely on groundwater wells. When wells are drilled into a highly pressurized aquifer, groundwater may flow up the well and onto the land surface without pumping. These flowing artesian wells were common in the early 1900s in the United States before intensive groundwater withdrawals began, but their present-day prevalence remains unknown. Here, we compile and analyze ten thousand well water observations made more than a century ago. We show that flowing artesian conditions characterized ~61% of wells tapping confined aquifers before 1910, but only ~4% of wells tapping confined aquifers today. This pervasive loss of flowing artesian conditions evidences a widespread depressurization of confined aquifers after a century of intensive groundwater use in the United States. We conclude that this depressurization of confined aquifers has profoundly changed groundwater storage and flow, increasing the vulnerability of deep aquifers to pollutants and contributing to land subsidence.

Modern groundwater reaches deeper depths in heavily pumped aquifer systems.

Deep groundwater is an important source of drinking water, and can be preferable to shallower groundwaters where they are polluted by surface-borne contaminants. Surface-borne contaminants are disproportionately common in 'modern' groundwaters that are made up of precipitation that fell since the ~1950s. Some local-scale studies have suggested that groundwater pumping can draw modern groundwater downward and potentially pollute deep aquifers, but the prevalence of such pumping-induced downwelling at continental scale is not known. Here we analyse thousands of US groundwater tritium measurements to show that modern groundwater tends to reach deeper depths in heavily pumped aquifer systems. These findings imply that groundwater pumping can draw mobile surface-borne pollutants to deeper depths than they would reach in the absence of pumping. We conclude that intensive groundwater pumping can draw recently recharged groundwater deeper into aquifer systems, potentially endangering deep groundwater quality.

Widespread and increased drilling of wells into fossil aquifers in the USA.

Most stored groundwater is 'fossil' in its age, having been under the ground for more than ~12 thousand years. Mapping where wells tap fossil aquifers is relevant for water quality and quantity management. Nevertheless, the prevalence of wells that tap fossil aquifers is not known. Here we show that wells that are sufficiently deep to tap fossil aquifers are widespread, though they remain outnumbered by shallower wells in most areas. Moreover, the proportion of newly drilled wells that are deep enough to tap fossil aquifers has increased over recent decades. However, this widespread and increased drilling of wells into fossil aquifers is not necessarily associated with groundwater depletion, emphasizing that the presence of fossil groundwater does not necessarily indicate a non-renewable water supply. Our results highlight the importance of safeguarding fossil groundwater quality and quantity to meet present and future water demands.

Risk of groundwater contamination widely underestimated because of fast flow into aquifers.

Groundwater pollution threatens human and ecosystem health in many regions around the globe. Fast flow to the groundwater through focused recharge is known to transmit short-lived pollutants into carbonate aquifers, endangering the quality of groundwaters where one quarter of the world's population lives. However, the large-scale impact of such focused recharge on groundwater quality remains poorly understood. Here, we apply a continental-scale model to quantify the risk of groundwater contamination by degradable pollutants through focused recharge in the carbonate rock regions of Europe, North Africa, and the Middle East. We show that focused recharge is the primary reason for widespread rapid transport of contaminants to the groundwater. Where it occurs, the concentration of pollutants in groundwater recharge that have not yet degraded increases from <1% to around 20 to 50% of their concentrations during infiltration. Assuming realistic application rates, our simulations show that degradable pollutants like glyphosate can exceed their permissible concentrations by 3 to 19 times when reaching the groundwater. Our results are supported by independent estimates of young water fractions at 78 carbonate rock springs over Europe and a dataset of observed glyphosate concentrations in the groundwater. They imply that in times of continuing and increasing industrial and agricultural productivity, focused recharge may result in an underestimated and widespread risk to usable groundwater volumes.

Global groundwater wells at risk of running dry.

Groundwater wells supply water to billions of people, but they can run dry when water tables decline. Here, we analyzed construction records for ~39 million globally distributed wells. We show that 6 to 20% of wells are no more than 5 meters deeper than the water table, implying that millions of wells are at risk of running dry if groundwater levels decline by only a few meters. Further, newer wells are not being constructed deeper than older wells in some of the places experiencing significant groundwater level declines, suggesting that newer wells are at least as likely to run dry as older wells if groundwater levels continue to decline. Poor water quality in deep aquifers and the high costs of well construction limit the effectiveness of tapping deep groundwater to stave off the loss of access to water as wells run dry.

Widespread potential loss of streamflow into underlying aquifers across the USA.

Most rivers exchange water with surrounding aquifers1,2. Where groundwater levels lie below nearby streams, streamwater can infiltrate through the streambed, reducing streamflow and recharging the aquifer3. These 'losing' streams have important implications for water availability, riparian ecosystems and environmental flows4-10, but the prevalence of losing streams remains poorly constrained by continent-wide in situ observations. Here we analyse water levels in 4.2 million wells across the contiguous USA and show that nearly two-thirds (64 per cent) of them lie below nearby stream surfaces, implying that these streamwaters will seep into the subsurface if it is sufficiently permeable. A lack of adequate permeability data prevents us from quantifying the magnitudes of these subsurface flows, but our analysis nonetheless demonstrates widespread potential for streamwater losses into underlying aquifers. These potentially losing rivers are more common in drier climates, flatter landscapes and regions with extensive groundwater pumping. Our results thus imply that climatic factors, geological conditions and historic groundwater pumping jointly contribute to the widespread risk of streams losing flow into surrounding aquifers instead of gaining flow from them. Recent modelling studies10 have suggested that losing streams could become common in future decades, but our direct observations show that many rivers across the USA are already potentially losing flow, highlighting the importance of coordinating groundwater and surface water policy.

Base of fresh water, groundwater salinity, and well distribution across California.

The depth at which groundwaters transition from fresh to more saline-the "base of fresh water"-is frequently used to determine the stringency and types of measures put in place to manage groundwater and protect it from contamination. Therefore, it is important to understand salinity distributions and compare defined bases of fresh water with salinity distributions and groundwater well depths. Here we analyze two distinct datasets: 1) a large set of total dissolved solids concentration (TDS) measurements (n = 216,754) and 2) groundwater well locations and depths (n = 399,454) across California. We find that 19 to 56% of the groundwater TDS measurements made at depths deeper than defined bases of fresh water pump fresh groundwater (TDS < 2,000 mg/L). Because fresh groundwater is found at depths deeper than the base of fresh water, current policies informed by base of fresh water assessments may not be managing and protecting large volumes of deep fresh groundwater. Furthermore, we find that nearly 4% of existing groundwater wells penetrate defined bases of fresh water, and nearly 16% of wells overlie it by no more than 100 m, evidencing widespread encroachment on the base of fresh water by groundwater users. Consequently, our analysis suggests that groundwater sustainability in California may be poorly safeguarded in some places and that the base-of-fresh-water concept needs to be reconsidered as a means to define and manage groundwater.

Groundwater level observations in 250,000 coastal US wells reveal scope of potential seawater intrusion.

Seawater intrusion into coastal aquifers can increase groundwater salinity beyond potable levels, endangering access to freshwater for millions of people. Seawater intrusion is particularly likely where water tables lie below sea level, but can also arise from groundwater pumping in some coastal aquifers with water tables above sea level. Nevertheless, no nation-wide, observation-based assessment of the scope of potential seawater intrusion exists. Here we compile and analyze ~250,000 coastal groundwater-level observations made since the year 2000 in the contiguous United States. We show that the majority of observed groundwater levels lie below sea level along more than 15% of the contiguous coastline. We conclude that landward hydraulic gradients characterize a substantial fraction of the East Coast (>18%) and Gulf Coast (>17%), and also parts of the West Coast where groundwater pumping is high. Sea level rise, coastal land subsidence, and increasing water demands will exacerbate the threat of seawater intrusion.

Hydraulic fracturing near domestic groundwater wells.

Hydraulic fracturing operations are generating considerable discussion about their potential to contaminate aquifers tapped by domestic groundwater wells. Groundwater wells located closer to hydraulically fractured wells are more likely to be exposed to contaminants derived from on-site spills and well-bore failures, should they occur. Nevertheless, the proximity of hydraulic fracturing operations to domestic groundwater wells is unknown. Here, we analyze the distance between domestic groundwater wells (public and self-supply) constructed between 2000 and 2014 and hydraulically fractured wells stimulated in 2014 in 14 states. We show that 37% of all recorded hydraulically fractured wells stimulated during 2014 exist within 2 km of at least one recently constructed (2000-2014) domestic groundwater well. Furthermore, we identify 11 counties where most ([Formula: see text]50%) recorded domestic groundwater wells exist within 2 km of one or more hydraulically fractured wells stimulated during 2014. Our findings suggest that understanding how frequently hydraulic fracturing operations impact groundwater quality is of widespread importance to drinking water safety in many areas where hydraulic fracturing is common. We also identify 236 counties where most recorded domestic groundwater wells exist within 2 km of one or more recorded oil and gas wells producing during 2014. Our analysis identifies hotspots where both conventional and unconventional oil and gas wells frequently exist near recorded domestic groundwater wells that may be targeted for further water-quality monitoring.

Global separation of plant transpiration from groundwater and streamflow.

Current land surface models assume that groundwater, streamflow and plant transpiration are all sourced and mediated by the same well mixed water reservoir--the soil. However, recent work in Oregon and Mexico has shown evidence of ecohydrological separation, whereby different subsurface compartmentalized pools of water supply either plant transpiration fluxes or the combined fluxes of groundwater and streamflow. These findings have not yet been widely tested. Here we use hydrogen and oxygen isotopic data ((2)H/(1)H (δ(2)H) and (18)O/(16)O (δ(18)O)) from 47 globally distributed sites to show that ecohydrological separation is widespread across different biomes. Precipitation, stream water and groundwater from each site plot approximately along the δ(2)H/δ(18)O slope of local precipitation inputs. But soil and plant xylem waters extracted from the 47 sites all plot below the local stream water and groundwater on the meteoric water line, suggesting that plants use soil water that does not itself contribute to groundwater recharge or streamflow. Our results further show that, at 80% of the sites, the precipitation that supplies groundwater recharge and streamflow is different from the water that supplies parts of soil water recharge and plant transpiration. The ubiquity of subsurface water compartmentalization found here, and the segregation of storm types relative to hydrological and ecological fluxes, may be used to improve numerical simulations of runoff generation, stream water transit time and evaporation-transpiration partitioning. Future land surface model parameterizations should be closely examined for how vegetation, groundwater recharge and streamflow are assumed to be coupled.

Jasechko et al. reply.

replying to A. M. J. Coenders-Gerrits et al. 506, http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nature12925 (2014)In their Comment, Coenders-Gerrits et al. suggest that our conclusion that transpiration dominates the terrestrial water cycle is biased by unrepresentative input data and optimistic uncertainty ranges related to runoff, interception and the isotopic compositions of transpired and evaporated moisture. We clearly presented the uncertainties applied in our Monte-Carlo sensitivity analysis, we reported percentile ranges of results rather than standard deviations to best communicate the nonlinear nature of the isotopic evaporation model, and we highlighted that the uncertainty in our calculation remains large, particularly in humid catchments (for example, figure 2 in our paper).

Terrestrial water fluxes dominated by transpiration.

Renewable fresh water over continents has input from precipitation and losses to the atmosphere through evaporation and transpiration. Global-scale estimates of transpiration from climate models are poorly constrained owing to large uncertainties in stomatal conductance and the lack of catchment-scale measurements required for model calibration, resulting in a range of predictions spanning 20 to 65 per cent of total terrestrial evapotranspiration (14,000 to 41,000 km(3) per year) (refs 1, 2, 3, 4, 5). Here we use the distinct isotope effects of transpiration and evaporation to show that transpiration is by far the largest water flux from Earth's continents, representing 80 to 90 per cent of terrestrial evapotranspiration. On the basis of our analysis of a global data set of large lakes and rivers, we conclude that transpiration recycles 62,000 ± 8,000 km(3) of water per year to the atmosphere, using half of all solar energy absorbed by land surfaces in the process. We also calculate CO2 uptake by terrestrial vegetation by connecting transpiration losses to carbon assimilation using water-use efficiency ratios of plants, and show the global gross primary productivity to be 129 ± 32 gigatonnes of carbon per year, which agrees, within the uncertainty, with previous estimates. The dominance of transpiration water fluxes in continental evapotranspiration suggests that, from the point of view of water resource forecasting, climate model development should prioritize improvements in simulations of biological fluxes rather than physical (evaporation) fluxes.